# market turbulence & strategic pivots as global tensions shape business landscape

what matters now:

- ongoing us-china trade tensions create broad uncertainty, while early negotiations raise hopes for resolution

- indian market sentiment remains resilient with nifty at 24,550+ despite geopolitical challenges with pakistan

- supply chain realignments accelerate as apple shifts production from china to india amid tariff impacts

- corporate q4 earnings show mixed results - adani ports, tvs motors, airtel thrive while eternal (zomato), bandhan bank struggle

- microsoft and meta deliver strong results driven by ai investments while consumer electronics companies face headwinds

- gold serves increasingly as growth asset not just safe haven as sebi takes balanced regulatory approach to financial markets

us-china trade tensions create market volatility amid early signs of negotiation

the potential thaw in us-china trade relations is emerging as beijing evaluates washington's tariff negotiations proposal. chinese commerce ministry officials indicated they're reviewing offers but emphasized the need for american "sincerity" in revoking tariffs, which currently reach as high as 145%. this development triggered significant market responses, with hong kong's hang seng index climbing 1.7% to 22,504.68, its highest level in a month.

simultaneously, japan finds itself in a unique negotiating position with finance minister katsunobu kato suggesting the country might leverage its substantial $1 trillion in us treasury holdings during trade discussions. this marks a notable strategic shift from earlier positions and comes amid meetings between japanese trade negotiator ryosei akazawa and us treasury secretary scott bessent.

the market volatility reflects the high stakes of these discussions. us yields rose after unexpected manufacturing strength, yet the dollar index is poised for its third weekly gain as trade concerns ease. in asia, while chinese markets were closed for a holiday, regional indices including taiwan showed positive momentum responding to potential negotiations. this cautious optimism comes despite both sides maintaining firm positions on their respective demands, creating an uncertain outlook for global trade relations.

indian market resilience amid geopolitical tensions & domestic strength

the indian stock market continues to demonstrate remarkable durability, with the nifty surging past 24,550 despite escalating tensions with pakistan. this resilience is supported by several domestic strengths, including record-breaking gst collections of ₹2.37 lakh crore in april, representing a 12.6% year-on-year increase. the robust collection indicates strong underlying economic activity despite external pressures.

foreign institutional investors (fiis) have returned to the indian market with enthusiasm, purchasing equities for 11 consecutive trading sessions - the longest buying streak in two years. after initially withdrawing ₹33,927 crore in the first half of april, fiis reversed course to make net purchases of ₹4,223 crore by month-end. domestic institutional investors (diis) have surpassed fpis in ownership of nse-listed companies for the first time in 22 years, with dii holdings increasing to 17.62% compared to fpi holdings of 17.22%.

the broader market outlook remains positive despite some sector-specific challenges. market expert sandip bandharwal suggests that while high-growth expectations for it companies may be limited due to global demand uncertainties, sectors such as banking (particularly icici bank and hdfc bank) and consumer goods show promise. the rbi's bond purchases, projected to exceed covid-era levels, aim to boost liquidity and facilitate policy rate transmission, potentially supporting continued market strength through effective monetary policy implementation.

apple's supply chain shift to india accelerates amid tariff pressures

apple is dramatically restructuring its supply chain in response to mounting trade tensions, with ceo tim cook announcing that the majority of iphones sold in the us will now originate from india during the june quarter. this strategic pivot comes as the company anticipates a substantial $900 million hit from us tariffs in the upcoming quarter. in a parallel move, cook revealed that vietnam will become the production hub for nearly all ipads, macs, apple watches, and airpods destined for the american market.

the scale of apple's dependence on china has created significant vulnerability, with approximately 80% of iphones historically manufactured there. despite this substantial supply chain realignment, apple reported quarterly revenue of $95.36 billion, up 5% year-over-year, though iphone sales specifically declined by 2% to $46.84 billion. the company's services division continues to thrive, with revenue climbing 11.6% to $26.65 billion.

this shift represents broader trends in global manufacturing as companies respond to tariff pressures. amazon's ceo andy jassy warned of uncertainties regarding eventual tariff stabilization, though he noted consumer demand remains steady. this manufacturing migration will likely accelerate as more companies seek to mitigate tariff exposure while maintaining production capacity, potentially creating new regional manufacturing hubs beyond traditional centers in china.

q4 earnings reveal diverging corporate fortunes amid market challenges

corporate earnings for q4fy25 reveal stark contrasts across sectors. adani ports reported exemplary performance with a 47.8% increase in net profit to ₹3,014 crore and 23% growth in revenue. the company has set ambitious fy26 guidance targeting revenue between ₹36,000-38,000 crore. similarly, tvs motor demonstrated robust performance with 16% year-on-year growth in overall sales for april, particularly excelling in electric vehicles with a 59% increase.

by contrast, eternal (formerly zomato) faced significant challenges with net profit plummeting 77.7% to ₹39 crore despite revenue growing 64% to ₹5,833 crore. the company is experiencing margin pressure in its quick commerce business amid intensifying competition from amazon and flipkart. similarly, bandhan bank reported continued stress in its microfinance portfolio despite a 483% increase in profits year-on-year, with management suggesting pain will persist through q1 and q2 of fy26.

the technology sector presents a similarly mixed picture. microsoft and meta delivered strong results driven by ai investments, with microsoft's azure revenue growing 33% and meta's ad revenue increasing 8.5%. however, consumer electronics companies like apple and samsung face challenges from tightening consumer budgets and tariff-related uncertainties. this divergence highlights how companies leveraging ai capabilities are outperforming those reliant on traditional consumer spending, potentially signaling longer-term structural changes in market dynamics.

sebi's regulatory approach balances innovation with investor protection

securities and exchange board of india (sebi) chairman tuhin kanta pandey has articulated a nuanced regulatory philosophy that seeks to balance market innovation with appropriate oversight. rejecting the implementation of aptitude tests for retail futures and options (f&o) traders, pandey emphasized practical challenges in testing millions of retail participants while respecting individual financial autonomy. this stance comes despite sebi's earlier findings that 90% of retail investors incur losses in f&o instruments.

on the broader regulatory approach, pandey advocated for "smart regulations" that promote constructive engagement between regulators and market participants rather than excessive control. he acknowledged concerns about potential overregulation while emphasizing that adequate checks and balances exist to tackle financial fraud. citing that 92% of sebi's decisions have been upheld by the securities appellate tribunal, pandey argued this demonstrates the regulator's capacity to enforce rules effectively.

pandey's position on the nse ipo indicates sebi's willingness to approve the offering provided outstanding governance, technological infrastructure, and litigation concerns are adequately addressed. this balanced approach aims to foster market growth while maintaining integrity, potentially allowing for greater innovation in india's financial landscape while protecting investor interests through targeted rather than overly restrictive regulations.

gold emerges as strategic growth asset beyond traditional safe haven role

gold is undergoing a fundamental transformation in its role within investment portfolios, evolving from a mere hedge to a principal asset for alpha generation. according to pradeep gupta of lighthouse canton, increasing geopolitical tensions, volatile equity markets, and waning confidence in traditional safe havens have elevated gold's status. despite a recent pullback that positioned gold for its worst weekly performance in over two months, the asset's long-term trajectory remains compelling.

the world gold council reports nearly 25% returns on gold investments year-to-date in 2025, with global demand increasing by 1% to 1,206 tonnes in q1, marking the highest quarterly demand since 2016. despite a 21% decline in jewelry demand to 380 tonnes, consumer spending increased by 9%, demonstrating strong confidence in gold even at rising prices. central banks continue to maintain significant interest in gold despite a 21% decline in purchases, which still totaled 244 tonnes in q1.

this shift in gold's perception coincides with the average gold price reaching a record $2,860 per ounce, representing a 38% year-on-year increase. as investors increasingly view gold as a growth asset rather than merely a defensive holding, its correlation with traditional equity markets may continue to evolve, potentially offering both protection and appreciation opportunities in portfolios facing multiple economic uncertainties.

tech companies diverge as ai powers cloud while tariffs hit consumer electronics

a stark divergence is emerging in the technology sector as companies focused on ai-driven cloud services thrive while those dependent on consumer electronics struggle. microsoft reported a 33% revenue increase in its azure cloud segment, while alphabet's ad sales rose 8.5%, both bolstered by ai enhancements. this positive momentum drove microsoft's shares up by over 9% and meta's by 4.2%.

conversely, consumer electronics companies face significant headwinds. qualcomm forecasts a revenue miss due to tariff impacts, while samsung expresses concern over uncertain demand. apple's challenges in china, where sales have declined for six consecutive quarters, highlight regional vulnerabilities. manufacturing dependencies amplify these concerns, with 90% of apple's production based in china and 50% of its revenue tied to iphone sales.

this bifurcation reflects fundamental shifts in technology investment patterns. microsoft plans to allocate $80 billion this fiscal year to ai infrastructure, targeting long-term competitive advantages. meanwhile, consumer-facing tech companies must navigate both changing consumer preferences and the immediate impact of tariffs. the divergent performances suggest a potential restructuring of the tech landscape, with market value increasingly concentrated in companies that successfully leverage ai capabilities while reducing exposure to traditional hardware manufacturing.

indian banking sector navigates mixed earnings amid strategic transitions

indian banks are displaying varied performances in q4 as they navigate changing economic conditions and sector-specific challenges. bandhan bank reported a substantial 483% increase in net profit year-on-year to ₹318 crore, despite facing ongoing stress in its microfinance portfolio. the bank is strategically shifting from unsecured loans to secured ones, with secured loans rising from 42% to 50.5% of its portfolio. however, this transition is expected to pressure net interest margins, which declined to 6.7% from 7.6% year-on-year.

private banks are pivoting toward mid-corporate lending as retail growth slows and large corporate demand remains muted. while overall non-food credit growth increased by 12% year-on-year (down from 16.3% the previous year), the mid-corporate segment experienced 18% growth, substantially outpacing large corporate loans at 5.2%. banks are targeting specific sectors such as logistics, real estate (notably renewables), and trade-related niches where cash flows are more predictable.

interestingly, private banks raised lending charges in march despite the rbi's 0.25% policy rate cut in february, influenced by liquidity challenges. the average lending rate on fresh rupee loans by private banks increased by 12 basis points to 10.32%, reaching a five-month high. the rbi's accelerated bond purchases through open market operations, projected to surpass covid-era levels, aim to address these liquidity concerns and improve policy rate transmission, potentially easing lending conditions in coming quarters.

infrastructure and energy investments accelerate across india

significant infrastructure developments are reshaping india's economic landscape, with prime minister narendra modi inaugurating the vizhinjam international seaport in kerala. developed by adani ports and special economic zone ltd. at a cost of approximately ₹8,900 crore, this deep-water container transshipment facility aims to triple handling capacity in the future and reduce india's dependency on foreign ports. adani ports' managing director karan adani has set ambitious targets, aiming to handle 5 million teus by 2028.

in the energy sector, reliance power's subsidiary, reliance nu suntech, has signed a landmark 25-year power purchase agreement with the solar energy corporation of india. the project, requiring an investment of up to ₹10,000 crore, will develop asia's largest integrated solar and battery energy storage system, delivering 930 mw of solar power with 465 mw/1,860 mwh battery storage at a competitive fixed tariff of ₹3.53/kwh.

these developments coincide with jsw energy's announcement of a 1,500 mw pumped hydro storage deal with uttar pradesh power corporation limited (uppcl). the 40-year agreement, featuring a fixed capacity charge of ₹77.2 lakh/mw annually, boosts jsw's locked-in energy storage to 28.3 gwh toward its target of 40 gwh by 2030. collectively, these projects represent a significant expansion of india's infrastructure and renewable energy capacity, potentially enhancing economic growth while addressing energy security concerns.

quick snippets

auto sales data mixed in april: maruti suzuki reported 7% growth in total sales (1.80 lakh units), tata motors saw a 6.2% decline (72,753 units), and hero motocorp showed a substantial 43% drop to 305k units, attributed to plant shutdowns due to supply chain disruptions.

reliance industries to enter solar manufacturing: reliance power subsidiary reliance nu suntech will develop asia's largest integrated solar and battery energy storage system with an investment up to ₹10,000 crore, delivering 930 mw of solar power at ₹3.53/kwh.

corporate governance concerns: sebi has accused pranav adani of insider trading related to sb energy acquisition, though he seeks to settle without admitting violations. meanwhile, the supreme court rejected jsw steel's resolution plan for bhushan power and steel.

financial services activity: jubilant beverages received cci approval to acquire a 40% stake in hindustan coca-cola holdings. carlyle group is divesting its remaining 10.44% stake in pnb housing finance through a $308 million block trade.

digital transformation: nithin kamath credits open-source software for zerodha's success, while youtube announced an investment of over ₹850 crore in india's creator economy over the next two years.

retail trends: v-mart retail reported a return to profitability with net profit of ₹18.5 crore in q4, recovering from a previous loss of ₹38.9 crore. the company also approved a 3:1 bonus issue.

commodity prices: nmdc raised iron ore prices by ₹440 per tonne, with baila lump ore now at ₹6,440 and baila fines at ₹5,500, marking the first price revision in the current fiscal year.

banking updates: kotak mahindra bank is expected to report a 11-16% decline in q4 profit due to increased provisions despite projected 6-9% growth in net interest income.